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Raffensperger and Jones are in a dogfight for the second runoff spot — and the polls can't see it.
Every public poll in the 2026 Georgia Republican gubernatorial primary has Raffensperger in third. The most recent — InsiderAdvantage (May 16–17) — puts him at 16%, behind Rick Jackson at 31% and Burt Jones at 27%. Every major pollster is measuring the wrong universe.
Georgia has an open primary. Anyone can pull a Republican ballot. But every likely-voter screen in this race is built on past GOP primary participation — by definition, crossover voters don't qualify, even when they're about to vote. The early vote file says roughly 32,000 of those people already showed up.
19,380 modeled Democrats and 12,373 Non-Partisans have already pulled Republican ballots in early voting. The Democrats aren't MAGA voters — they watched Raffensperger's feud with Trump over the 2020 election, and they are not crossing over to vote for Trump's endorsed candidate, Burt Jones. They're there for Brad.
Apply that crossover universe to the InsiderAdvantage baseline at defensible capture rates (65% Democrat, 60% Non-Partisan) and Raffensperger's adjusted number moves from 16% to approximately 25–27%. Carr's late surge to 10% pulls some of the moderate crossover, but it doesn't change the fundamental picture.
Burt's spending backed off a bit in early voting to save powder for the runoff. Raff and Rick Jackson didn't. Rick leads and should make the runoff, but the final spot is up for grabs. The race for second is a lot closer than the polls suggest.
Sam is a husband, a father, and a professor of communication at Truett McConnell University. He holds an MS in Strategic Communication and an MA in Christian Ministry. He would rather be fishing, but engages reluctantly in local and state politics to fight the out-of-state liberals that won't leave us alone. Sam has zero interest in Washington DC or anything that happens there.
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